As the Internet grows, and more and more people get online and connected, traffic looks set to grow exponentially. And at the center of that huge explosion of Web usage is video. Already a big part of the Internet, it’s set to be dominant by 2013, at least according to Cisco.
Explosion In Internet Traffic
Cisco, a company that designs and sells networking and communication technology, today released an updated version of its Visual Networking Index. This study looks at how the Internet is likely to grow between now and 2013, and what sectors will be responsible for driving traffic and bandwidth usage.
The research predicts that total IP traffic is set to hit 56 exabytes of data per month by 2013, up from just 9 exabytes of data per month during 2008. This means that annual global IP traffic will exceed two thirds of a zettabyte (1 trillion gigabytes) by that time. Which is going to put a hell of a strain on the system.
Video Dominant By 2013
Cisco forecasts that by 2013, 90 percent of total Web traffic will be from video. It already makes up around a third of Web traffic (not including P2P) but the next four years is going to see such an explosion in the use of online video that it’ll likely be the dominant force on the Internet.
This incredible figure is partly down to the fact that video files are usually a good deal larger than text files, still images, or Web pages. But there is also the fact that IPTV is increasingly becoming the primary method of delivery, with broadcast and cable TV set to become the second string choice.
Video Is Everywhere
Another element adding to this predicted growth of online video is the number of mobile devices now capable of capturing video and then sharing it on the Web. Yesterday saw Apple announce the new iPhone 3G S at WWDC 2009 and it’s the first model of the iPhone which is capable of doing exactly that, meaning video is going to be heading both ways from people’s iPhones very soon.
Then there is the growing trend for video communications such as in Instant Messaging conversations and Internet calls using Skype and the like. These may not use much bandwidth individually but if everyone starts using this method to chat to their friends and family then video will once again be at the center of a huge traffic boom on the Web.
Conclusions
Although it’s good to hear that video is going to be such a huge part of the Internet of the future, it does open up the possibility of serious problems. Are ISPs going to be happy with these level of usage, and what will they do to counter or control it? Are the InterWebs likely to slow down for all of us? I guess we’ll find out in four years time.
